![]() ![]() Much has been discussed during the past 24 hours regarding Buffalo’s strategy to kick a touchback. A first-down attempt would have been risky for sure, but on average the punt costs the Bills more than 7% in GWC, especially at a time when the Chiefs were having great difficulty stopping Josh Allen. This is evident in the Bills' decision to punt on fourth-and-1 from their own 34-yard line in the third quarter. High-powered offenses such as these are typically under greater scrutiny for fourth-down aggressiveness. As mentioned last week, the “high confidence” tag is used when the model’s play call recommendation still holds after a very strong counter-case is applied to the original decision. We will address them in that order.Īs indicated in the following tables, the Chiefs gave up 7.7% GWC on two (high confidence) fourth-down errors while the Bills cost themselves 10.9% GWC on two (high confidence) errors. The conversation after the game centered on some key fourth down decisions, the final kickoff in regulation, and the fairness of the overtime rules. This Game-Winning Chance (GWC) chart, generated by the EdjSports simulation model, provides a visual representation (from the Chiefs’ perspective) of the volatility that defined the late stages of the game. Then, the Chiefs and Bills proceeded to play one of the greatest games in NFL history on Sunday night. NFL Divisional - After the first three games of the NFL divisional round playoffs were completed, it was hard to imagine it could get any better.
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